Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
